We’re passing the mic again this week to political organizer and climate policy specialist Alex Cool-Fergus.
Once again, extreme weather is pushing Canadians’ concern about climate and the environment upwards. In a recent poll, the environment bounced up as an issue of concern by two points in July compared to June. That brings the environment to a higher position than a bunch of other critical issues, including housing, national unity, immigration, and homelessness.
It’s no wonder: the smoke in the air across many Canadian cities, as well as the high winds, heat waves, and what Prime Minister Mark Carney called biblical floods are the tangible result of a warming planet. When you can taste the air and feel the heat, climate change suddenly moves up the priority list. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to forecast that the next poll will show higher levels of concern.
Even Republicans south of the border have taken note: for the third year in a row, U.S. lawmakers have written to provincial and federal governments demanding swift action on forest fire management. Some even re-ignited Trump’s threat to turn Canada into a 51st state unless we can get the fires under control. The response from PM Carney at a news conference in southern Ontario was lacklustre: he vaguely pointed to “investments in clean energy”, then pivoted right back to touting the Pathways carbon capture, storage and utilization (oh yes! utilization is back, baby!) project.
You can’t make this stuff up.
Unfortunately, this Prime Minister understands, as do many of us who advocate for smarter climate policies, that the public’s long-term desire for action on climate change is not an on/off switch triggered by extreme weather. It most certainly has not deviated Carney from his deregulatory, pro-fossil fuel agenda. Immediate concern does not necessarily translate into lasting political pressure, so he and Energy Minister Tim Hodgson are betting that the average Canadian who is horrified by this summer’s extreme weather won’t remember it by the fall.
And they may yet be correct.
Carney’s Wager
Prime Minister Carney’s real bargain isn’t with Alberta: it’s with the rest of us. Carney is betting that those of us who care about fact-based policy, climate change, or the energy transition won’t become a strong political force.
This is the hard, cold political calculation the Prime Minister made when he decided to strike a deal with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, while neglecting Canada’s roster of climate policies so severely it’s almost as if they never existed at all.
To Carney and his advisors, as long as the climate community is spread thin across a variety of fights and issues (reasonably, since there are so many bad policies coming our way), the interests of people who are concerned about climate can be left on the back burner.
Every summer sees these peaks of worry when climate impacts bubble up. Yet generally, our federal government is free to continue racing backwards in climate policy, claiming, as the Prime Minister did in his recent Forward Guidance video, that “we can’t afford to restrain the growth of an important part of our energy mix, oil and gas, to meet a short-term goal.” That statement would be laughed out of the room if the bar on climate were set higher.
Or take, for example, the very real difference in approach between two major energy announcements over the past few months.
• Although federal ministers and assorted spokespeople are more than happy to trot out their new electricity strategy when it suits them—namely, when they are asked a pointed question about climate policy and have to provide proof—the fact remains that the consultation on the plan is still open. This is no bad thing in theory. The electricity strategy is projected to cost around $1 trillion between now and 2050. It’s normal and completely understandable to want to measure twice and cut once.
• But what of the pipeline to the West Coast, for which we taxpayers are now expected to pay 90% of the tab while Hodgson touts the deal as a “good investment” for all of us? Or the accompanying Pathways CCUS project, described by one veteran observer as a “master class in greenwash”?
Not only are there no consultations on either of these massive infrastructure projects, but we don’t even have an estimated cost for Pathways. Seems like when it comes to handing out cheques to enormously profitable companies (Canadian oil companies are estimated to have generated $90 billion in excess profits just since the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran), Carney and Hodgson have no problem whipping out the government’s chequebooks—no questions asked.
Related: Tell us your better ideas for investing $43.7 billion of your tax dollars!
The Politics of Fossil Fuel Boosterism
Carney’s pipeline agreement and the ensuing Pathways boondoggle are entirely about politics. More than anything, these head-scratchers aim to ensure that a very vocal constituency within one single province—namely, the Alberta MAGA separatists—are no longer able to claim that the federal government is blocking their resources. The rest is secondary: remember when Carney called the question of whether a pipeline would be built “boring”?
As long as the Alberta separatism debate continues to live rent-free in Carney’s mind, he will make terrible policy decisions to assuage the MAGA forces in the province he once called home. Danielle Smith clearly understood the value there: by delaying the ultimate vote and calling a “referendum on a referendum”, she gave herself many more months, if not years, to continue peddling false solutions to the feds in the name of national unity.
But politics can change quickly. Just ask Doug Ford, who went from winning a majority government just 18 months ago to becoming Canada’s most detested Premier.
The scant polls which have measured the public’s reaction to the pipeline announcement show that about half of people polled haven’t made up their mind about whether they support or oppose the project. Even more telling, the political arguments Carney has spent a year trying to make (namely, that a pipeline is the solution for national unity) do not appear to have worked. National unity as a reason to build a pipeline rallies only 13% of respondents.
These numbers are important: they mean there is still room for a counter-narrative to take root.
Time to Speak Up!
The job for activists, communicators, policy-makers, and concerned people everywhere is to make the issue of climate and environment a sticky one. We don’t have the benefit of oil money, and we definitely aren’t being listened to right now by the Prime Minister’s Office. But we do have a LOT of people on our side: 80% of Canadians are concerned about climate change. We want climate action, and consistently underestimate how much our peers want it, too.
The fires and extreme weather we are collectively experiencing this summer are horrific. That is not a reason to remain silent—those of us in the climate community have a role to play in expanding the base of people who want to see ambitious climate action.
We often bring a different lens to the conversation about fire smoke and extreme heat. Our perspectives matter, and we should not shy away from sharing what we know with our friends, families, and community members. People are thirsty for credible information and solutions. So let’s give them what the federal government so far has not: an honest picture of what’s going on, and a clear and compelling path forward.
Chart of the Week
U.S. Lawmakers Threaten Annexation, Trump Talks Tariffs as Winds Carry Canadian Wildfire Smoke South
Wildfire Summer: Canadians Face Evacuations, Smoke Alerts from Ontario to B.C.
Wind Farm in a War Zone: Vestas Announces 384 MW for Project in Ukraine
Wind Farm Damaged by Extreme U.S. Storm Shows Limits of Historical Weather Models
NOT SATIRE: U.S. Politicians Say Wildfire Smoke is Ruining Americans’ Summers, Demand Canada Stop It
‘Master Class in Greenwash’ as Ottawa, Alberta, Oil Sands Alliance Unveil CCS Deal
Oil Sands Emissions Will Outpace Reductions from Pathways CCS, Climate Institute Warns
AI Can Predict Disaster. It Won’t Deliver or Fund the Supports Communities Need.
Community Pushback Blocks $64B in U.S. Data Centre Development
Yellowknife ER doctor recommends monitoring air quality, using masks to reduce wildfire smoke exposure (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation)
Five First Nations sign $1-billion equity deal for LNG Canada’s planned storage tank (Globe and Mail)
Grey whales are dying along our shores. Researchers say a warming climate may be part of the problem (CBC What On Earth)
Read the fine print: who really won in the Canada-Alberta MOU? (The Hill Times)
Pessamit Innu community in Quebec rejects multi-billion-dollar hydro deal (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation)
Poland Connects First Baltic Offshore Wind Farm as It Shifts Away From Coal (Bloomberg)
He left the oil fields for wind turbines. Here’s why. (My Climate Plan)
‘Super’ El Niño could cause global food price shock lasting into 2028, analysts say (The Guardian)
UK in ‘firewave’ as extreme heat provides ideal conditions for wildfires, experts warn (The Guardian)
Under Lula, Amazon deforestation falls to lowest level in a decade (Al Jazeera)
The Philippines inaugurates first phase of massive solar-storage project (PV Magazine)
Heat pumps replace Middle East gas imports twice over (European Heat Pump Association)
Excellent essay. Thank you. Canadians must understand that Carney and Hodgson are in the pockets of the oil and gas industry. Carney's supposed climate credentials were a tool to obtain European government peer approval. The truth is that Carney is like so many other super-wealthy; they think their wealth will protect them. It won't...starting with ubiquitous food insecurity. Canadians must wake up. We must engage with our MPs and we must make our concerns repetitive and loud and discomfiting.
.. chock full of slanted Political Narrative - unfortunately
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