No, Prime Minister

PM Mark Carney is slow-walking climate action while further entrenching Canada in fossil fuel dependence. He also needs the votes to pass his budget. Climate advocates take note.

markjcarney/Instagram

“Have you heard about the Budget?”

I’m prepared to bet most Canadians did not hear that phrase uttered over the past few weeks, and with good cause.

Normally, budget season and the post-budget analysis are the equivalent of the Stanley Cup for Ottawa Bubble nerds. But this year, even along Wellington Street in downtown Ottawa, one might have been forgiven for overlooking the budget entirely due to the federal Conservative Party dumpster fire caucus.

In a move almost as chaotic as last year’s shocking and public disavowal of Trudeau by his finance minister, not one, but two, Conservative MPs left (or announced their departure from) Poilievre’s caucus in as many days. The chaotic and potentially game-changing political turmoil pushed everything else off most of the federal agenda, including the disappointing budget and concerning new tranche of major projects announced this week.

For those of us who believe that Pierre Poilievre’s brand of politics is dangerous and backward, watching him lose two MPs and much credibility has been entertaining (although devastatingly awful for the MPs in question and their families, who are reportedly going through hell triggered by hyperpartisan intimidation tactics).

But the partisan spectacle should not eclipse the bigger, quieter story: there remains a path forward for those of us who believe Carney can still be a climate leader, and we should be doing all we can to push him in that direction.

The Grand Bargain

Much has been said of the grand bargain Carney appears to be negotiating with Alberta. However, the budget and major projects list demonstrate that the grand-er bargain he’s made is with climate-concerned Canadians.

There is no compromise in this budget. And why would there be? To Carney, who has so far gotten his way every time he’s tried anything these past months, it’s all a breeze. Win the leadership of the Liberal Party? Easy. Go on to clinch the election with an almost majority government? Why not? Become bosom buddies with Doug Ford and even placate Danielle Smith (who’s waiting “on line one”)? Laughably simple.

Carney has been brilliant so far. He’s been the Teflon man of Canada. Nothing has stuck. But it is increasingly clear that he’s making up the plan as he goes, as his would-be Climate Competitiveness Strategy demonstrates. As Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood notes in his budget reaction, there is nothing competitive about the strategy’s approach to climate policy: to the contrary, it sets up Canada as a passive beneficiary of an energy transition put in motion by others, not us.

To anyone who wanted to see a budget that built the economy, tackled the affordability crisis, and boosted Canada’s sovereignty through a climate lens, this budget is an enormous letdown, made all the more devastating by the fact that it was written almost single-handedly by the most climate literate PM Canada has ever had: he gets it, he knows how high the stakes are, yet he appears to have capitulated to the fossil fuel industry’s agenda.

And yet, all hope is not lost. There are currently 170 MPs in the Liberal caucus with a heck of a lot of individual power. Every single one of them should wield it intelligently.

Case in point: this week, Pierre Poilievre held his first press conference since the floor crossing. Instead of meaningfully addressing the critiques he is facing from within his own party, he did the only thing he knows how to do: he attacked Liberal MPs Steven Guilbeault, Jonathan Wilkinson, and Nate Erskine-Smith.

Why these three? Likely because they are known to be sincere in their commitment to advancing real climate solutions, and occasionally call out their own government’s bullshit.

But why did Poilievre try to distract journalists with those MPs’ critique of Carney? Besides using Liberal turmoil to distract from his own, it is true that in this current context, what an MP thinks about, say, carbon capture and storage, or a “decarbonized oil” pipeline, matters significantly more than if the Liberals were in a majority position.

A Moment of Influence

There’s a reason the rumours around former ministers Wilkinson, Blair, and Freeland’s departures for greener pastures all seem to include a December timeline for their resignations: Carney needs them around, and has included their votes as part of his staying-in-government-for-longer-than-six-months strategy.

Note that Liberals may not be particularly concerned about the prospect of losing the confidence of the House. Currently, polls show them poised to win a majority government should the government fall (and should Canadians forgive Carney his temerity of being so cocksure he refused to negotiate with the NDP and Bloc, thereby launching us into a Christmas election). But let’s assume Carney would rather be celebrating the holidays by the fire at Harrington Lake rather than door-knocking in three feet of snow. (Or maybe, at 1.4°C average warming, slush.)

To prevent an election, the government needs to hold onto all the votes it currently has. It needs to gain at least a few more, in fact. Carney may act like he’s the head of a majority government, but he’s not. And there are currently no parties lining up to support the budget in confidence votes next week.

Meanwhile, Liberals who care about climate are disappointed. As Liberals are wont to do, they are keeping their critiques behind closed doors, but it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to guess which Members of Parliament are rejoicing versus mourning elements such as the loss of the Greener Homes program, the disappearance of key anti-greenwashing provisions in the Competition Act, or the endangered status of the oil and gas emissions cap.

Whether it went far enough or not is a legitimate question, but the fact remains that the Liberals ran under a platform that is significantly different from the outcomes their own government now appears to be promoting.

It’s beyond time for climate-concerned members of the Liberal caucus and their allies to say: “No, Prime Minister”. No, we will not parrot your lines about carbon capture and storage as a climate technology. No, AI data centres will not improve our lives or communities. No, we will not pretend that Canada should be a leader in clean and conventional energy, especially when we see the direct impacts that fossil fuel pollution has had on the places we love. No, we will not support the fast-tracking of MAGA-aligned projects such as Ksi Lisims.

Closing Doors. Opening Windows.

But for every closed door, it’s up to the wider base of climate advocates to open windows. No to carbon capture and storage means yes to more conservation and nature regeneration. No to AI data centres means yes to investing in public services and culture. No to conventional energy means yes to a truly just transition that supports workers and communities as they find healthier, more resilient work. No to MAGA fossil fuels is a resounding yes to Indigenous-owned and -operated renewable projects across the land.

The floor crossing shows us that if there is one thing MPs listen to, it is their constituents. Chris D’Entremont would never have had the courage to leave the Conservative Party had he not felt the stress of being told, at door after door and in constituency events, that his longtime voters and supporters could no longer cast ballots for him due to his leader’s hardline positions.

In this moment of opportunity, the climate community must take advantage of the political fragility of the Carney government to mobilize our large constituency in ridings across the country, and make our voice heard loudly and clearly by the country’s decision-makers. We have more power than we think. We should wield it.

» A Special Thank You to Judy O’Leary

“You rarely know the ripples you make.”
- Judy O’Leary

The climate community in Canada lost a giant last month. Judy O’Leary, a longtime volunteer, friend, mentor, and organizer, passed away much too soon, leaving behind her an unfillable gap.

Anyone who ever had the immense pleasure of collaborating with Judy, whether through Climate Caucus or any of the other campaigns and organizations to which she contributed, will know that she was a gentle force of nature who left the world a much better place than she found it. Organizers are faced with many pressing issues and never take enough time to recognize and thank the leaders like her who do the work behind the scenes, day after day, in the hope that it will achieve something bigger. Judy was always giving back and finding beauty even in challenging situations. She reminds us what a person can do, not by reaching for grandeur and recognition but by putting in the time, supporting people, and holding joy and kindness in our work. Judy worked tirelessly but always had the time to laugh, to make people feel at ease, to mentor and centre love in all that she did.

Judy believed in the beauty of the world, and that we could build more resilient communities. Beyond belief, she worked to achieve that vision, without ever leaving anyone behind. It is up to us to pursue her legacy and build a better, more just and joyful place for all.

Thank you, Judy. We miss you so much.

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Chart of the Week

Wherever you go, whenever you go there, International Energy Agency scenarios show that net-zero energy delivers lower energy bills than continuing to rely on fossil fuels. Chart: IEA via LinkedIn

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