Trump Tries to Resurrect the Zombie Pipeline No One Wants
It’s a horror movie, and we can’t seem to kill this zombie pipeline project.
Canadian politicians obediently snapping to attention and talking about bringing the Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline project back from the dead are denying that it’s a hollowed-out idea that would keep us stumbling around, consuming precious time better spent elsewhere.
Donald Trump, President of the United States, self-proclaimed deal-maker, stable genius, and former reality TV star, said on his ironically-named “Truth” Social platform last Monday that he wanted to resurrect the pipeline that was begun, and already cancelled twice. Like the zombie project that it is, it just keeps lurching into the limelight.
Similar to the “big, beautiful wall” that he vowed Mexico would pay for in his first term, Trump said he wanted the pipeline brought back and he wanted it NOW. If the company that previously tried to build it, TC Energy, didn’t want to do it, Trump said he wanted another company to pay for it.
This is the childish ranting of a despot who doesn’t even care whether there’s a solid economic case to build it. It was originally supposed to be an 830,000 barrel per day crude oil pipeline starting in Hardisty, Alberta and covering 1,900 kilometres to end up in Steele City, Nebraska. It’s unclear whether Trump even realizes that the oil would be coming from Canada.
He just said last month the U.S. didn’t want or need Canada’s oil, gas, vehicles, or lumber, but here we are.
What is disturbing to see is how quickly some people sprang into action, and how reluctant some Canadian premiers and others are to just admit that Keystone’s time has passed and we need to let it die.
Falling Into Line
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, of course, was all for it. First out of the gate with a post to Elon Musk’s failing social media platform X.com, she agreed with Trump and claimed the pipeline would “lower fuel costs for American families.” She added an American flag emoji to show just how much she meant it.
Surely, the premier knows full well that oil is priced based on a global market, and the price for gasoline at the pumps is much more complicated than that.
With a cheerful, “that project should have never been cancelled,” Smith went on to give Trump some advice.
“Let’s also scrap those inflationary tariff ideas and focus on getting shovels in the ground right away!”
I guess she feels she’s now BFFs with the president, having snuck into Mar-a-Lago in Kevin O’Leary’s suitcase.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, not to be outdone, rushed in with his own social media post. He may have overplayed his hand just a bit with a proclamation on Wednesday that “all pipeline permits going east, west, or south received in Saskatchewan will be considered pre-approved.”
Moe even went so far as to tag Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Trump with the added comment: “We encourage all provinces and the federal government to do the same.” All that was missing was an #AllHailKingTrump hashtag.
Saskatchewan just lost an appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada on its consultation practices in the granting of permits for field mineral exploration in the northwestern part of the province. Moe’s hubris seems totally out to lunch.
The Métis Nation-Saskatchewan (MN-S) brought the lawsuit and president Glen McCallum told the CBC he looks forward to a “common understanding” with the provincial Ministry of Environment that the courts ruled they dropped the ball on consultation.
“We’re going to live here together in Saskatchewan, and we’ve got to work together,” said McCallum. Wise words for the challenges ahead for Canadians.
Even one former premier, who has had personal experience with the project, weighed in on Keystone XL’s revival, giving questionable advice on how to negotiate with the notoriously fickle Trump.
“A Canadian government could go to Donald Trump and say, ‘Hey, we agree with you, we’d like to sell you more oil, we’re prepared to make it happen, but you’ve got to commit to us that Canadian energy exports and other exports are not going to be tariffed,” said Jason Kenney, the former premier of Alberta who couldn’t even negotiate with his own party to keep his job.
Kenney forgot to mention that Alberta is still in the process of suing the U.S. to the tune of C$1.3 billion, alleging that the Biden administration breached the Canada-U.S. free trade agreement when it cancelled Keystone XL in 2021.
That case began under Kenney’s watch and is going before a World Bank tribunal in September. But don’t hold your breath, because TC Energy already had its own US$15-billion case thrown out last year.
Meanwhile in Ottawa, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson responded to media questions about federal support for KXL 3.0 in an email statement through his communications director.
Joanna Sivasankaran said the Canadian government was open to having a “productive conversation,” a polite way of ruling out any further dialogue with the current White House.
Yet Trump’s demand for pipe immediately generated a dozen or more media stories, social media posts, and opinion pieces from a wide range of analysts. A few even took it seriously.
Negotiating with ‘West Russia’
Why are we even entertaining the idea of a north-south pipeline into a country that some on social media are now calling “West Russia?”
When a small army of elected officials, high ranking government bureaucrats, and seasoned diplomats from Canada have been unable to move the needle on much of anything with Trump, least of all the tariffs that ultimately make an oil pipeline a non-starter?
“Canadians have always been a reliable [fossil] energy supplier to our American friends—but unjustified tariffs and threats against our sovereignty hurt our ability and desire to be an energy partner to our southern neighbour,” said Sivasankaran, with a slight air of melancholy.
After meeting with U.S. lawmakers in Washington in early February, the normally feisty Wilkinson was pretty circumspect about new oil pipelines from Canada into the states.
"I don't think anybody ever expected us to be in the situation where the president of the United States is essentially treating Canada as an adversary and not as an ally," he told reporters. “We will as a country want to have some conversations about infrastructure that provides greater security for us."
Two premiers from Atlantic Canada have actually resigned since the so-called “Team Canada” (not the hockey team!) photo opportunity was held at the White House in January. It was that bad.
Andrew Furey is stepping down as premier of Newfoundland and Labrador and Dennis King resigned as premier of Prince Edward Island, both within the same week.
Although all the provincial and territorial premiers showed up in Washington with the intention of making their case against tariffs, they didn’t even get an in-person meeting with Trump. That must have stung. To add insult to injury, the deputy chief of staff they did meet with felt it necessary to post a correction to a news report emphasizing they "never agreed that Canada would not be the 51st state."
In an interview on CTV’s Power Play recently, Furey spoke candidly on his way back to his job as an orthopaedic surgeon. The best interviews happen when people are leaving politics.
When asked about Trump’s absurd claims of fentanyl flooding across the border from Canada, he said Canada should pursue a different strategy.
“It’s important not to respond to everything he says, every time. We need to do what Canadians do best—be calm, be cool, be collected, be strong, be ready to be proportional in our response, but be firm in it,” he said.
Furey believes Trump’s bombastic approach is now “embedded in the Make America Great Again (MAGA) ideology and will probably outlive the president.”
Snowball’s Chance for KXL
By now, it must be sinking in that there is no real hope of making deals with Trump’s America. There’s little chance of success, and a significant risk of him not upholding his end of the bargain anyway.
And let’s be clear: Trump’s political pipe dreams aside, none of the experts believe Keystone XL has a snowball’s chance in hell of going ahead.
Richard Masson is an executive fellow at the University of Calgary School of Public Policy, the former chief executive at the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, and a go-to fossil industry advocate in national media. He told Global News a Keystone XL oil pipeline is just not part of any producer’s growth plans and the project “isn’t coming back any time soon.”
The original proponent, TC Energy, has sold its pipeline business to South Bow Corp., a smaller company that has quite firmly said it isn’t interested.
A great many Indigenous communities and landowners fought back against the pipeline when it was originally proposed. The rights-of-way acquired previously have now expired, and a lot of the pipe has been removed and/or sold.
Masson added that the tariffs Trump is threatening to bring in next week will hurt the profitability of existing refineries in the U.S. that have the ability to handle any Canadian crude that would come into the country through the pipeline.
“None of this makes any sense,” he said, voicing what pretty much everyone is thinking.
The Pipeline & Gas Journal, a publication not known for opposing pipelines, tried its best to make sense of it all after explaining the many reasons why Keystone XL would probably never go ahead.
“The Keystone XL debate reflects broader political dynamics, with Trump using the pipeline as a platform to challenge Biden’s policies and underscore his own priorities,” P&GJ wrote.
They’re not even calling it a “project”. It’s just a “debate”. That is not confidence.
Even the president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Lisa Baiton, avoided direct mention of Keystone XL, stating that Canada’s policy focus should shift to “diversify our markets for Canadian products and tariff-proof our country.”
These are the same folks who usually lobby for such projects.
Why Are We Talking About This?
So why are we even still talking about this? That’s a good question, and an opportunity to consider how Canada should respond to Trump’s executive orders and the MAGA agenda.
Given what unfolded in the Oval Office Friday, it’s hard to imagine anyone entertaining thoughts of having an impact on Trump’s decision-making.
Despite promising to end the war in Ukraine on his first day, Trump has continued to praise Russia and alienate Ukraine, even excluding them from so-called “peace talks”.
Both UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and France’s President Emmanuel Macron made trips to Washington last week to try and convince Trump to give Ukraine assurances the U.S. would protect it from further Russian expansion. These two are not exactly rookies at negotiation.
But look how that turned out. All seemed to have gone well at first. Both European leaders posed for photographs with the president, who seemed like he understood the assignment. Trump had bragged about a “very big deal” in return for access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals.
Then Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the much respected president of Ukraine whose country you may recall was invaded by Russia, arrived at the White House as planned.
In a spectacle worthy of WWE, Trump welcomed the international press, cameras rolling, into the Oval Office on Friday to witness the moment as he and JD Vance, the U.S. vice-president, tag-teamed a verbal attack on Zelenskyy, barely letting him speak in his own defence.
The world was astonished, no exaggeration, at what unfolded. Trump seemed quite pleased with himself, stating the episode would make for “great television.” With Vance gesturing wildly from the couch beside Trump, the two needled Zelenskyy relentlessly for almost an hour, claiming that Zelenskyy was not respectful or thankful enough to deserve their support.
It seems that Trump expected Zelenskyy to hand over the rights to Ukraine’s resources, but obviously, no agreement was possible without security guarantees from the Americans. Anyone could’ve seen that coming.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who sat stone-faced next to Vance, looking down at his lap with hands folded, was once an ardent defender of Ukraine. He looked immobilized with fear.
No one wants to end up looking like Rubio, or Vance, for that matter.
Instead, watch the reaction of Zelenskyy, threatened and bullied by Russia, facing the prospect of a former ally effectively switching sides. It seems that some people in the White House have even had their memories wiped, Severance-style, about the fact that Russia was the aggressor.
Trump has stated that Zelenskyy isn’t welcome back until he stops saying “negative” things about Russian president Vladimir Putin.
Zelenskyy’s not perfect, but he did handle the situation with as much dignity and restraint as anyone could expect under the circumstances. The White House said he provoked Trump. But far from apologizing, Zelenskyy is standing firm in his call for security assurances before agreeing to any deal with Russia or the U.S.
We should all aspire to be more like Zelenskyy, rather than jumping at every demand Trump makes.
Support for Zelenskyy has remained strong, with European leaders scheduled to hold an emergency summit in London Sunday to discuss a peace plan. Although he wasn’t originally invited, it’s a relief to know that Trudeau is on his way, having been recently added to the list of world leaders attending.
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Thanks Mitchell for continuing to write outstanding articles that help keep the growing chaos in perspective.
Please let me know when you have time for another chat. 🌎🇨🇦